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How markets work

A RuneMarket market is a smart contract representing one binary OSRS question. It defines what is being predicted, when trading ends, how the result should be verified, and which tokens represent the two possible positions.

Market definition​

The market's meaning comes from three onchain fields:

FieldPurpose
Market questionThe exact YES-or-NO statement being evaluated.
Market sourceThe source or sources used to verify the result.
Additional informationDetailed criteria, edge cases, dates, thresholds, and cancellation conditions.

Read all three before trading. A short display title or market card is only a summary.

Curated creation​

Market creation is permission-gated. RuneMarket does not currently offer permissionless public market creation. Authorized RuneMarket administrators and Oracle Council members create markets and define their onchain terms.

Each market is also configured with:

  • an end-of-trading timestamp;
  • a maximum YES and NO token supply;
  • its USDC payment token;
  • an optional resolution reward;
  • challenge periods and bond amounts copied from protocol configuration at creation; and
  • the two Uniswap v4 pool definitions used for trading.

YES and NO tokens​

Every market creates separate ERC-20 YES and NO tokens. They can be held in a wallet and transferred like other ERC-20 tokens.

Holding YES means the position benefits if the market resolves YES. Holding NO means the position benefits if the market resolves NO. Ownership of either token does not itself affect the oracle's decision.

Backing​

The market contract holds the USDC payment tokens deposited when matched YES/NO pairs are minted. One whole USDC payment token creates one whole YES token and one whole NO token. Before finalization, a matched pair can be burned to withdraw one whole USDC payment token.

This relationship provides the settlement backing for winning outcome tokens. It does not mean that the live YES and NO trading prices must always add up to exactly one USDC payment token.

Prices and displayed probabilities​

YES and NO trade in independent pools, so each has its own price and liquidity. Prices can diverge because of pool liquidity, fees, order flow, and temporary market conditions.

When RuneMarket displays a normalized YES implied probability from both outcome prices, it uses the relationship:

YES price / (YES price + NO price)

This is a user-interface interpretation of available prices. It is not an authoritative probability, a promise of execution at that price, or the market's final result.

Onchain and offchain information​

The onchain market address, question, source, and additional information are authoritative. RuneMarket may attach offchain metadata such as:

  • a readable URL slug;
  • OSRS category;
  • image;
  • search text;
  • featured placement; and
  • SEO description.

This metadata improves presentation and discovery. It must remain linked to the immutable chain and market address and must not change the meaning of the onchain terms.